The 2-year Treasury now yields 1.5% more than the 10-year. This is the most reliable recession predictor in economics with an 8-for-8 track record. The debate is not if a recession happens, but when.
The yield curve has now called 8 consecutive recessions. EIGHT. FOR. EIGHT. If a sports bettor had that record you'd re-mortgage your house on them. The catch: gold during recessions is a three-act play — loves the fear phase, gets roughed up in the liquidity squeeze, then absolutely thrives on the Fed's inevitable response. The key question: which act are you in right now?